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Sunday, March 26, 2006

It's almost over

2 more days. That's all we have left till the most useless and most boring elections in Israel will start and more importantly be over.

I have never seen an Election (I have been aware and or/active in 6 elections now including this one, This will the 4th time I am voting - I am only 25) that so many people had no IDEA 2 so soon before the elections who they are going to vote for.
Those who made us their minds have all told me they choose the "least of all evils" and not the one they wanted. WE have 3 people trying to run for PM Each worse than the other.
I came to the conclusion a while ago that if all 3 were one person and we took the best traits from each we might be able to come up with some one decent. Instead we have 3, who will be fighting in a few days from now on how my country is going to look.

But, I am going to vote anyways. WHY? Because I can. Because if I don't vote I can't complain later about the situation in this great country of mine. Because in this system every vote really does count.

for a few predictions:
The winner in these elections will still be Kadima - but they will fall to somewhere in the 33-30 range.
Likud - will pick up some of those and will manage to make it to 14-16 seats
Labor - about 20 give or take
Meretz - about 4-5 (the Zionest left in Israel is down to 25 seats, what does that tell you) Just a reminder in the 92 elections (Rabin won and became PM) the Zionist left got 60 seats (and the people who brought you Oslo)
Ichud Leumi/Mafdal - most likely 10 seats
Shas will get about 10
Yahadut Hatorah - 4-5
The Big surprise of these Elections will be Yisrael Baitenu - that might actually pass Likud and will get about 15 seats as well.
That leave 10 seats (give or take) - 8 go to the Arabs and the last 2 I leave open since I have a feeling that one of the small parties might make it in - Either the greens, Aleh Yarok, or maybe Shinu 1 or 2.

Happy Election Day To all

P.s. - I invite you all to make your predictions -mine are based on the polls and my hunches - feel free to use any method you want - they are all Valid.

8 Comments:

At 11:33 PM, Blogger Jameel @ The Muqata said...

Quadima: 28
Labor: 21
Likud; 20
Yisrael Bayteinu; 12
NU/NRP: 12
Shas: 11
Degel/Aguda: 5
Arabs: 5
Meretz:4
Alei Yarok: 2

 
At 4:52 AM, Blogger solitarioh2005 said...

the Zionest left in Israel is down to 25 seats
/...../ Just a reminder in the 92 elections (Rabin won and became PM) the Zionist left got 60 seats


Hi : Very interesting , indeed. That gact speaks volumes about oslo and the "Peace" process. Oslo failed.

 
At 10:37 AM, Blogger Oleh Yahshan said...

Solit,
Ya that seems to be the fact.
but the more interesting point is that those that are still trying to sell us this "peace" precess are the ones that are getting hit in the polls.
It's not that Israel doesn't want peace, All parties agree we sould, the question is as what price. Shimon Peres in the 90s talked about the "Victims of Peace" everytime a but blew up.

Well I am off to vote, We will see the results in 12 hours.

 
At 8:29 AM, Blogger solitarioh2005 said...

Hi :
it looks kadima got 28 seats and labor 20.

The labour leader said:
" we are the only party that will make sure the next government will march toward peace and social justice."

I am very sceptical.

Peace only exists if BOTH sides agree to end hostilities . I dont see how any Israeli leader give the palestinians what they demand:Return of refugees and Jerusalem.

Eventually it can happen a period of calm. Actually the suicide bombers sharpely dropped so things are already calm NOW.
In the past the so called peace process often did brought war.

That was the case in 1996 , when Jerusalem shooting took place.

That was the case in 2000 when the intifadah broke out exactly when the peace process was in full swing.

I fear MORE " Peace" process will mean more fighting.

In the past an increase in fighting when the peace process was undergoing made all the sense.

In order to put diplomatic pressure in Israel.., Arafat start fighting and then he said : Yes. There is fighting .Peace only comes if Israel makes more concessions.

Incredible the us did Arafat game and often placed more pressure in Israel.

Let us see if this time more negotiations will mean more bullets.

I am not optimistic

 
At 8:55 AM, Blogger solitarioh2005 said...

I finally realized what does it mean Peace Of The Brave.

A fellow must really be brave to live and survive in such kind of Peace


Explosion kills two in Israel
by
Tuesday 28 March 2006 10:08 AM GMT

The attack gives hardline parties a handle to criticise Olmert

Two Israelis have been killed in an explosion near the border with the Gaza Strip in what Palestinian resistance movement Islamic Jihad said was an attack designed to disrupt the country's election.

Two civilians, a beduin and his child, were killed in an explosion near the Nahal Oz kibbutz in southern Israel on Tuesday.



The army said the blast was either caused by a fresh rocket attack or a dormant rocket that exploded.



Abu Bara, a spokesman for Islamic Jihad, told AFP: "We carried out this attack in order to disrupt the Israeli elections.



"We strike [Israel] to show the world that this state is illegal and we will carry on."



Abu Bara said Jihad - the faction behind the last seven anti-Israeli bombings - fired three makeshift rockets towards Israel from an area near Karni, the sole transit point for goods entering and leaving Gaza.



The projectiles were fired towards the Nahal Oz area. He said another two rockets were fired from the northern Gaza Strip into Israel.



Palestinian militants frequently fire makeshift rockets into southern Israel from the Gaza Strip, but many fall short or do not initially explode on impact.

 
At 2:31 PM, Blogger Olah Chadasha said...

Yes, and a new phenomenon has started. Yesterday, the fired the first ketyusha rocket from Gaza into Israel. These rockets are much more deadly and dangerous than the Kassam and other make-shift rockets these slime can come up with. This is a whole new risk, and we're in for a whole new fight.
-OC

 
At 2:17 AM, Blogger solitarioh2005 said...

I would say for now..,the Gaza Katyushas no big deal.
Hezbollah has thousands of them aimed at Israel.
That is a much more big threat.
That is all very sad indeed.
The problem is that the Arab world did not undergo a ideological change. They very much believe what they believed 30 years ago.
The arab world still sees israel as the enemy.
As long as this does happen the conflict might flare up again. The US has ignored such fact and has closed its eyes to the fact that throughout the Arab world anti israeli propaganda is widespread.

 
At 11:32 AM, Blogger Olah Chadasha said...

The Gaza Katyushas are a big deal for a couple of reasons. #1) Unlike with the north, the ones being fired from Gaza have to go a much less distance to do a lot more damage. The terrorists also fires rockets a lot more often than Hezbollah fires theirs. There are literally dozens of rockets fired from Gaza every day. If Katyushas start becoming the norm, it can be a very grave threat to the people of Israel. That is why the Army is responding so harshly and swiftly to the Katyusha attack. #2) The politcal left of Israel said, when Oslo was signed, that there would never be a Katyusha rocket fired from Gaza. Mainly, they said that the Palestinians would never have a "reason" to shoot them. This is a serious deal.
-OC

 

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